The contest is occurring in the U.S. heartland, in a predominantly white state with less than 1% of the country’s population that is hardly reflective of the nation’s growing racial and ethnic diversity. But as is custom, the contest is first on the political calendar during the quadrennial campaign to win a four-year term in the White House.
As such, the Iowa winner could get a boost in other state contests that soon follow in the nominating process, or shove poor Iowa performers out of the race altogether.
The outcome in Iowa is uncertain, with a crowded field of 11 candidates remaining even after another dozen candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race for lack of voter support or paltry campaign fundraising.
Statewide polls of Democratic voters show a tight contest at the top between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-declared Democratic socialist, and former Vice President Joe Biden, a long-time fixture in Washington political circles who is making his third run for the party’s presidential nomination.
The political surveys show two other challengers running close behind the front pair, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a one-time Harvard law professor, and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a political centrist and the only gay candidate in the race, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar of the neighboring state of Minnesota in fifth.
Many caucus-goers have said they are still undecided and analysts say a few surprises are possible.
Unlike primary elections, where actual ballots are cast, voters participate in caucuses by gathering in meetings at schoolhouses, town halls, empty stores, and even people’s homes.
They show their preferences by raising their hands or huddling in groups of like-minded supporters of the candidates. But candidates are only considered to be viable contenders at each caucus if they get at least 15% of those gathered there.
Backers of any candidate who fails to meet the 15% threshold are given a chance to throw their support behind their second choice at each caucus before a final statewide count is tallied and a winner declared.
Despite all the attention it gets, the Iowa caucus has not always been a reliable harbinger of who will win the Democratic Party nomination.
Bill Clinton had a notoriously poor showing in the 1992 caucus with less than 3% support and wound up winning the White House that November.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the 2016 Republican caucus, but Trump was the nominee.
Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack says Iowans believe the purpose of the caucus is to narrow the large field of candidates so the rest of the country has few choices but good choices for the primaries to come. The northeastern state of New Hampshire votes next week, with the southern state of South Carolina and the western state of Nevada voting later in February.
